UK Logistics Sector Returns to Pre-Pandemic Level

Occupier demand for UK logistics and industrial space returned to its pre-pandemic norms following a year of tough market conditions, according to newly-published data from global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

According to the firm, more than 10.2 million sq ft of space transacted in the occupational market during Q4 2023, taking the total annual figure to 32.5 million sq ft.

The Q4 volume of 10.2m sq ft was a 2% increase on Q4 2022’s 10m sq ft. While marginal it will serve as a cause for cautious optimism in a market which saw just 13.5m sq ft transact across the two previous quarters. Take-up for the full year 2023 represents a 41% decrease on the 2022 total but falls just 2% below the 10-year pre-pandemic average.

Demand has been driven by a much wider pool of business during 2023, with healthcare, MedTech, food related businesses and advanced engineering companies all active nationally, while film studios and creative industries have been taking more space in and around London.

This diversity of demand has been important during a period in which the market has experienced a notable absence of large third party logistics, ecommerce and retail demand. Interest rate hikes and the subsequent impact on retail volumes, as well as the easing of the supply chain pressures that had induced a wave of additional demand in recent years, has caused demand from these areas to drop back.

Inflationary pressures have also driven some occupiers to seek out and develop their own purpose-built facilities in response to rental levels. Upcoming sustainability and environmental regulations appear to be dissuading occupiers from taking poorer quality buildings, with Grade C take-up now at its lowest level since 2008.

Richard Evans, Head of UK Logistics & Industrial at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “As expected, 2023 was certainly a challenging year for the market with tough trading conditions and persistent inflation. But the Q4 take-up figures and the breadth of demand highlights just how robust and resilient the market can be in the face of such pressure, and we’re delighted to see such a variety of businesses acquiring modern, high-quality space. We expect to see continued improvement in market conditions throughout 2024 as consumers and businesses regain confidence and the wider economic recovery begins.”

Cushman & Wakefield also states that concerns around oversupply are beginning to fade as the development pipeline dwindles, and the surge of grey space returning to the market has cooled off. Following a sharp increase in the supply of available space from Q4 2021 onwards, Q4 2023 represented a second quarter of only marginal increases. Total availability of space within units of 50,000 sq ft and above rose by just 2% compared with the Q3 value, as a result of the constrained development pipeline and persistent pressures on build and financing costs. Despite a year of rising supply, and some speculation of oversupply in the market, a more forensic examination of available space shows that overall the market continues to be characterised by a lack of choice and pockets of undersupply, supressing occupier choice and potentially holding back demand.

Nearshoring Accelerates Demand for European Space

The amount of industrial space taken up by manufacturers in key European markets is rapidly increasing – up 28% last year – as they ‘nearshore’ operations closer to their consumer markets to improve the flexibility and sustainability of their supply chains, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Supply chain disruption, rising costs including manufacturing wages in Asia and for transport, geopolitical challenges to products crossing borders, and a growing focus on sustainability and social impact, have illuminated the complexity of how and where we source the products we make, move and consume.

Manufacturers responded by taking 9.6 million sq m (103 million sq ft) of space last year, up from 7.5 million sq m in 2021 – against a backdrop of overall logistics & industrial space declining 4% year-on-year. The figure is also a significant jump on pre-pandemic take up, which had reached 7.8 million in 2019 after increasing steadily in the preceding years.

Although cost was a significant driver in ‘offshoring’ manufacturing facilities away from Europe in previous decades, it is not the only factor driving current nearshoring activity. While remaining hugely important to businesses considering where to locate production facilities, the differential in costs between making goods in Asia compared with Europe has narrowed. Other factors – highlighted during the pandemic – have helped accelerate the trend, Cushman & Wakefield highlights in a new report on nearshoring.

Sustainability, social impact, oversight, flexibility and control are also influencing decision making. This is particularly the case for businesses investing significant capital in automation and robotics for production.

Tim Crighton, Head of Logistics & Industrial EMEA at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The cost of a robot for production is broadly similar around the world. The return on investment is therefore quicker and more attractive in some of the traditionally higher cost labour markets like Western Europe against comparatively lower cost labour markets like Asia. Layer in the supply chain stress experienced through the pandemic and the shifting sands of global politics and you have a compelling convergence of factors if you are a manufacturer of goods.”

The report identifies particular geographies and sectors in Europe that stand to benefit from the trend for a variety of reasons, including:
• Central & Eastern Europe, thanks to its relatively low labour costs, geographic proximity to large markets and strong transport links represents one of the most attractive regions for investment in manufacturing;
• Spain and Portugal are highlighted from a cost and proximity-to-consumer-markets perspective, along with key ports along the northern Mediterranean coast as far as northern Italy;
• Major European economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands will benefit as specific industries grow and evolve, including electric vehicle and battery production, and semiconductor fabrication;
• The UK, as more businesses seek domestic suppliers as a result of Brexit supply chain challenges, although it will also face additional challenges;

Sally Bruer, EMEA Logistics & Industrial Research & Insight Lead at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “Nearshoring is not just about cost – companies are also weighing up their speed to market, transparency, sustainability and geopolitics. Governments also have a key role to play by incentivising investment in product manufacturing that is critical to the delivery of economically, environmentally and socially sustainable industries. As an example, European governments have been stepping in recently with subsidies to secure the go-ahead for major manufacturing projects after the EU loosened state aid rules in the face of fierce global competition.”

In terms of property investment, the broader logistics and industrial sector has been at the sharp end of recent price correction, but investors remain keen on business-critical assets where the occupier commitment is secure and where return profiles are attractive. As such, nearshoring represents an opportunity for developers, investors and occupiers of manufacturing space to work together to create new assets in new geographies, to create value for all parties and enjoy the potential for operational efficiencies and higher levels of investment return.

While manufacturing projects can take a long time to materialise into the construction of physical assets, these facilities are then integral to production, and typically secured on long-term commitments.

Sally Bruer added: “Occupiers will prioritise newer buildings that are more operationally and economically efficient, especially where high levels of automation are implemented. Power sources will also be a key consideration as sustainability credentials are an increasingly large part of the decision making process. Investors will be drawn to these assets for the same reasons, especially where there are strong commitments by established businesses in key markets where risk appetite is low. Less established markets also stand to benefit from nearshoring and these may appeal to investors with higher risk appetites.”

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