DHL’s trade outlook conference call today witnessed a cautious attitude to 2025 forecasts and trends. Mike Parra, CEO of DHL Express Europe, expects impacts on trade between the US, Eurozone, and UK, and argues that DHL Express is supporting UK businesses in navigating these changes.
“There’s volatility and uncertainty for sure,” Parra said. “But globalization is not in retreat, as shown by our connectedness index recently. There has been a deceleration in global trade growth. Typically trade growth is double GDP growth, and that’s still the case for countries like Turkey. But currently trade is rising by the same as GDP in the UK and other countries,” which is not much therefore. “We are seeing growth in shipments by SEMs,” he added.
Saul Resnick, CEO of DHL Supply Chain UK, who was a guest on our Logistics Business Conversations Podcast recently, discussed inventory levels and infrastructure investments in the UK and what they reveal about business confidence in UK retail and manufacturing. “UK competiveness is under review,” he said. “FMCG investment is ok, as is moves to more automation and digitization. Omnishoring is trending. 90% of the affects of Brexit have taken place and we have adapted with our customers to these new arrangements.” In terms of inventory, “safety stock levels are down, so service is paramount. Products must be in the right place.”
“I thought we had seen the bottom last year, in terms of insolvencies and disruption in the UK, as a result of Brexit, but maybe it will be this year,” added Parra. “We’re getting closer to the full impact, it shall pass and the UK will bounce back. But what’s next? We’ve seen customer stop selling into the EU. On the plus side, our family of businesses offer consolidation warehousing and distribution to help.”
I asked Parra and Resnick about their opinion on whether the UK should join the forthcoming ‘Pan-Euro-Mediterranean’ (PEM) convention and customs agreement. Is this the single best thing the UK Government can do to boost growth? “Anything that attracts more trade we will support,” responded Resnick. Parra said, “any free trade agreement for the UK now will be seen as positive in nature. Trade equals jobs!”
DHL Express operates 130 flights per day from the UK, particularly the East Midlands Airport hub.
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