globalisation Archives

Netherlands tops DHL Globalisation Index

Posted on 15 March, 20237 August, 2025 by David Priestman

DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business have released the new DHL Global Connectedness Index 2022, an in-depth report on the state of globalisation and its prospects. Analysing data from 171 countries and territories, it reveals how flows of trade, people, capital, and information move around the world.

The report shows that international flows have been remarkably resilient in the face of recent shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. After a slight decline in 2020, the composite DHL Global Connectedness Index rose back to above pre-pandemic levels in 2021. The currently available data points to a further increase in 2022, despite slower growth in some flows. International trade in goods was 10% above pre-pandemic levels in mid-2022. International travel remained 37% below 2019 levels in 2022, but doubled compared to 2021.

“The latest DHL Global Connectedness Index data clearly debunks the perception of globalisation going into reverse gear,” John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, concludes. “Globalisation is not just a buzzword, it’s a powerful force that has transformed our world for the better. By breaking down barriers, opening up markets and creating opportunities, it has enabled individuals, businesses and entire nations to flourish and thrive like never before. As we continue to embrace globalisation, we can build a brighter future that benefits us all, creating a world that is more interconnected, more prosperous and more peaceful than ever before.”

US and China: Geopolitical rivalry frays connection

The DHL Global Connectedness Index provides evidence that the US and China are decoupling in many fields. Looking at 11 types of trade, capital, information, and people flows (such as merchandise exports, M&A transactions, and scientific research collaboration), the share of US flows with China declined for 8 out of 11 types since 2016. In the same period, the share of China’s flows with the US decreased for 7 out of 10 types with data available for China. Several of these were large declines. Nonetheless, the US and China are still linked by far greater flows than any other two countries that do not share a border. Furthermore, the data shows that, so far, the decoupling between these two countries has not led to a broader fragmentation of global flows between rival blocs of countries.

No evidence of trend towards regionalisation – globalisation has increased

Analyses in the DHL Global Connectedness Index also show that predictions of a shift from globalisation to regionalisation have not – at least yet – come to fruition. The average distance traversed by trade, capital, information, and people flows has increased over the past two decades, and trade flows even stretched out over longer distances during the Covid-19 pandemic. The only category that displays a clear recent shift toward regionalisation is people flows. This is due to the dramatic change in travel patterns during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It remains an open question whether trade patterns will become significantly more regionalised in the future,” says Steven Altman (pictured), Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “Many companies and governments are focused on nearshoring to regionalise supply chains, and there are substantial business benefits that can come from regionalisation. On the other hand, more than half of all trade already happens within regions, and the benefits of long-distance trade are still important, especially as inflation remains high, economic growth has slowed, and container shipping rates have come back down.”

Ranking of most globally connected countries

In the country ranking of the DHL Global Connectedness Index 2022, the Netherlands was again the most globally connected country. Singapore ranked second overall and first in terms of the size of international relative to domestic flows. The UK has the most globally distributed flows. Among the 55 most globally connected countries, there are representatives from every world region.

The DHL Global Connectedness Index

Published regularly since 2011, the renowned DHL Global Connectedness Index provides reliable findings on globalisation trends by analysing 13 types of international trade, people, capital, and information flows. The 2022 edition is based on over four million data points from 171 countries, accounting for 99.7% of the world’s gross domestic product and 96% of its population. A collection of 171 one-page country profiles provides concise summaries of individual countries’ globalisation patterns.

The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business.

Podcast: Future of the Supply Chain – Listen Now

Posted on 20 February, 202329 July, 2025 by David Priestman

Logistics Business magazine has launched a series of podcasts. ‘Logistics Business Conversations’ are monthly, topical and exclusive talks with key informative spokespeople from the supply chain industry. Available now for free on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Acast, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, and all other podcast distribution platforms – just search for Logistics Business Conversations.

In our first episode, hosted by editor Peter MacLeod, he talks to Guido Brackelsberg and Niklas Kirwel, Directors of Setlog – a supply chain management software specialist. They discuss international supply chain challenges, how to mitigate them and whether globalisation as a trend will continue or not.

30 minutes of lively debate and good advice. Listen anytime on your preferred platform or by clicking here.

Globalisation: Manufacturing Moves Closer to Home

Posted on 17 January, 202331 July, 2025 by David Priestman

New research has revealed the emergence of major shifts in globalisation, as companies rush to move manufacturing closer to home to protect against supply chain disruptions while increasingly protectionist policies are breaking the world into trade blocs.

The latest Trade in Transition study, commissioned by DP World and led by Economist Impact, captured the perspectives of company leaders as they navigate the latest disruptions to global trade – from the conflict in Ukraine to inflation and extended covid-lockdown policies in some markets.

Its key finding is that 96% of companies confirmed they are making changes to their supply chains due to geopolitical events.

The change has been swift. In the space of just a year, the number of companies shifting their manufacturing and suppliers– either to their home markets or nearby – has doubled compared to 2021. This is driven mainly by efforts to reduce costs and the risk of disruption. But the shifts are not even. While 27% of companies said they were decreasing the length of their supply chains due to geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine, another 33% plan to expand into more stable and transparent markets.

Inflation threat

The persistent threat of inflation was cited by 30% of the executives as having the most significant negative impact on trade over the next two years. Inflationary pressures are seen in input costs — from supply shortages – and transport, through high energy costs and shipping capacity constraints. In a scenario of monetary tightening, companies across Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific anticipate exports to be 1% lower than under a business-as-usual situation due to decreasing production and demand.

If inflationary pressures continue, exports in the Middle East and South America are expected to be hardest hit, declining by 3.52% and 2.74% respectively. Only Africa is expected to see its exports rise by 0.26%.

A fragmenting world

The fragmentation of the world into trade blocs was also cited by 10% of respondents as limiting the growth of international trade. Beyond the war in Ukraine, US-China tensions and cyber warfare are preventing the efficient functioning of economies worldwide. This is leading to increasingly protectionist policies such as the US Infrastructure Bill and the CHIPS and Science Act, which aim to incentivise and prioritise US and North American manufacturing. Similar protectionist policies are popping up all over the world, leading to further fragmentation of the global trade system.

Businesses are finding ways to respond and grow. Altering supply chains either through diversification, regionalisation, or reshoring to build resilience is one response.

The global survey of 3,000 company executives found that companies in North America and Europe are most likely to outsource more than half of their services within their region. This is followed by 40% of companies in South America, 36% in the Middle East, 32% in Asia-Pacific and 18% in Africa, outsourcing within their regions.

The widespread and increasing adoption of technology is another way to build resilience into the supply chain. Some 35% of respondents said they were currently implementing Internet of Things (IoT) solutions to facilitate the tracking and monitoring of cargo, while another 32% of companies are adopting digital platforms to enable direct business with customers or suppliers.

Speaking at the launch of the report at the World Economic Forum in Davos today, DP World Group Chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem said:

“The report is tangible evidence of how globalisation is changing as companies are forced to adapt to new challenges. By bringing production closer to the final customer, firms can reduce the number of touch points involved in the supply chain and build greater resilience into the flow of cargo around the world. But the trade environment is always changing. The next challenge that will alter these trends is an economic slowdown looming over regional markets. Agility, real-time visibility and end-to-end supply chain capabilities will be critical to ensuring companies can continue to find new efficiencies in an increasingly challenging environment.”

John Ferguson, Practice Lead for New Globalisation at Economist Impact, added:

“The shift to regionalisation and reshoring has been sharp, but unsurprising given the triple threat of higher costs, increased risks and government incentives or requirements to do so. Furthermore, businesses in previous decades have only had to focus on the economic aspects of trade, being price, quality and delivery. Now they have to account for other non-economic factors such as resilience and sustainability. All of which is having a drastic shift in supply chains, which we are witnessing both in the survey results and global trade patterns shifts”.

DHL Trade Growth Atlas: Global trade surprisingly strong

Posted on 15 September, 202231 July, 2025 by David Priestman

DHL and NYU Stern School of Business have published the new DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which maps the most important trends and prospects of global trade in goods. The report covers 173 countries, providing valuable business intelligence for policymakers and industry leaders. It shines a positive light on the resilience of global trade – despite recent shocks and market pessimism.

“Our aim is for the DHL Trade Growth Atlas to become a go-to resource for understanding and navigating shifts in the global trade landscape. Trade will remain a key driver of prosperity – as it has been for centuries. In the current global business environment, DHL can help customers rethink certain supply chains, basing them on a sensible trade-off between cost and risk so that they are both efficient and secure. As the world’s leading logistics provider, we offer solutions for all logistics requirements, and have proven to provide stable and reliable services even in volatile market environments,” says John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express.

International trade is considered especially important in the present context because of its power to accelerate economic growth, reduce inflation, and enable countries and companies to access multiple sources of key inputs.

Key take-aways: growth, shifts, and opportunities

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas also measures changes in countries’ and regions’ shares of world trade. Among the key take-aways:

The Covid-19 pandemic has not been the major setback for global trade that many anticipated: International trade in goods has surged as high as 10% above pre-pandemic levels, even in the face of significant supply bottlenecks that constrained further growth.

Prospects for future trade growth remain surprisingly positive: Due to the war in Ukraine, trade growth forecasts have been downgraded, but they still call for trade to grow slightly faster in 2022 and 2023 than it did over the preceding decade.

E-commerce sales boomed during the pandemic and forecasts point to strong cross-border e-commerce growth continuing. New poles of trade growth are identified in Southeast and South Asia, and trade growth is expected to accelerate dramatically in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Trade growth is spread across a wider variety of countries: China accounted for a quarter of trade growth in recent years and is predicted to continue to have the largest growth, but its share is likely to fall by half, to 13%.

Viet Nam, India, and the Philippines stand out on both speed and scale of projected trade growth through 2026. All three have potential to benefit from efforts by many companies to diversify China-centric production and sourcing strategies.

While emerging economies increased their shares of world trade from 24 to 40% between 2000 and 2012, with half of the increase driven by China alone, these shares have barely changed over the past decade.

However, emerging economies continue to race forward on measures of connectivity, innovation, and leading companies. They are becoming more important exporters of sophisticated manufactured products, and increasingly compete not only on low costs, but also on innovation and quality.

Understanding global trade and its opportunities

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas examines global trade growth trends, geographic shifts, the mix of products traded, and broader changes in the business environment. It analyses trade in goods worldwide, by region, for advanced vs. emerging economies, and across 173 countries. The report features concise one-page summaries for each of these countries. The countries covered comprise more than 99% of world trade, GDP, and population.

“We have sought to distil the most important data on the state and trajectory of global trade and to bring the data to life in maps, charts, and other visual content. The results show how there are still large trade growth opportunities in both advanced and emerging economies and in regions around the world. The trade landscape is shifting and presenting new challenges, but this report strongly rebuts predictions of a major retreat from global trade,” says Steven Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.

The DHL Trade Growth Atlas complements the established DHL Global Connectedness Index series. While the DHL Trade Growth Atlas provides a special deep dive on global trade in goods, the DHL Global Connectedness Index, published regularly since 2011, analyses the broader phenomenon of globalisation – based on trade in goods and services, as well as worldwide flows of capital, people, and information. Both reports help pinpoint promising business opportunities, and support fact-based debates about trade and globalisation.

CLICK HERE to download a copy of the new DHL Trade Growth Atlas report.

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