Cargo theft is not a new problem. But the findings from TT Club and BSI Consulting’s 2025 Cargo Theft Report make one thing clear: it is becoming more sophisticated, more coordinated, and more costly, writes Mike Yarwood (pictured, below), Managing Director, Loss Prevention, TT Club.
Across every major trade corridor, criminal groups are adapting faster than many businesses are responding. They are exploiting operational complexity, insider access, and the pressure points created by high freight volumes and overstretched security resources. The result is a persistent drain on supply chains that cannot be addressed solely by historical loss data.
The scale of the problem
Trucks remain the single most targeted mode of transport globally, accounting for roughly three-quarters of all recorded theft incidents. But the picture is far from simple. Rail emerged as a more targeted modality, accounting for 10% of cargo theft incidents in 2025, compared to 2024 when it accounted for only about 4% of incidents. Rail cargo theft escalated sharply in 2025, with organised criminal groups, including networks tied to cartels operating out of Sinaloa, Mexico, carrying out highly coordinated attacks on freight trains across rural areas of Arizona and California – operations that often-involved deliberate system sabotage, detailed advance planning, and armed encounters with law enforcement.
Brazil, Mexico, India, the United States, Indonesia, Chile, China, Germany, and South Africa remained the top countries for recorded incidents, while Ecuador experienced one of the sharpest increases – nearly doubling its theft cases as gang-related violence intensified in coastal provinces, such as Guayas. In South Africa, over half of all recorded thefts occurred in transit, with hijackings and sophisticated schemes by ‘blue light gangs’ presenting persistent risks.
In Asia, half of all incidents occurred at warehouses and production sites, with only 36% involving trucks. Insider involvement accounted for 22% of global cargo theft incidents, with notable concentrations in India, China, Brazil, the United States, and Indonesia – schemes that often-involved incremental pilferage enabled by corrupt employees and weak inventory controls.
Criminals follow market value
Criminal groups are increasingly agile, adapting their targeting strategies to focus on goods that offer the greatest combination of value, liquidity, and ease of resale. Consistently targeted commodities such as food, beverages, electronics, and pharmaceuticals continue to dominate theft statistics globally, though the report also identifies emerging targets – including rare earth minerals in China and a notable increase in pharmaceutical theft in India – demonstrating how rapidly criminals pivot when market conditions change.
Copper offers a clear illustration of this dynamic. In recent years, average copper prices have remained at historically elevated levels, driven by sustained global demand, constrained supply, and long-term structural pressures linked to decarbonisation and infrastructure investment. TT Club’s claims experience shows a clear correlation between periods of elevated copper prices and increased incident frequency, with theft extending to coils, cabling, cathodes, scrap, and semi-processed forms. Security strategies that fail to account for shifting market conditions will consistently lag behind the threat.
A more proactive approach is needed
Effective commodity-driven theft risk management requires dynamic, rather than static, mitigation strategies, with security controls adjusted according to the value, liquidity, and attractiveness of cargo at a given point in time. Collaboration between commercial, operational, and risk management teams is essential to ensure that emerging threats are recognised and addressed promptly.
Cargo crime is adaptive, organised and increasingly driven by economic opportunity. Our response must be equally dynamic.
