Middle East Conflict Drives Surge in Spot Freight

The European Road Transport Institute Foundation (EITD) has published key insights from the market, a new analytical report examining the major trends shaping European road freight in the first three months of the year.

Spot freight offers surge across European corridors

Load offers on key European routes grew substantially throughout Q1, with March delivering the strongest momentum. Western European corridors led the way: the France–Benelux route recorded a year-on-year increase of 102%, while France–Germany (+73%), Germany–Benelux (+71%), and Benelux–France (+72%) also posted exceptional growth. Central European routes followed a similar upward trajectory, with Germany–Poland reaching +43% and Poland–Germany +37% in March.

“What we’re seeing is not just a typical post-winter rebound, but a structurally stronger demand environment — and part of this increase reflects a rebalancing between contract and spot markets, particularly where contract rates no longer match current cost realities,” said Michał Pakulniewicz, Market Analyst at European Road Transport Institute Foundation.

Carrier search activity recovers

Carrier search activity remained subdued in January and February, with most corridors recording year-on-year declines consistent with the trend of the past two years. March brought a partial rebound, however, with several Western European routes turning positive. The Spain–France corridor saw the strongest recovery, accelerating to +29% in March after modest growth earlier in the quarter. The shift reflects carriers being drawn back to platforms by rising rates and increased spot market fragmentation. ​

Freight rates accelerate sharply

Freight rates followed a steady upward trend across Q1 2026, but March marked a clear shift in pace. After mostly single-digit increases in January and February, double-digit year-on-year gains became widespread. The Poland–Italy corridor recorded the steepest rise at +14.1%, followed by Benelux–France (+13.6%) and Poland–Germany (+13.5%). The acceleration reflects both direct cost pressure from higher fuel prices and the amplifying effect of the spot market, which transmits cost changes into rates more rapidly than long-term contracts.

Natalia Janiszewska, CEO of ​ European Road Transport Institute Foundation, sees a structural shift in how the market is pricing transport:

“When fuel costs spike and contracts stop reflecting what transport actually costs today, freight moves to spot. That’s exactly what we saw this quarter — and the spot market is becoming the primary way to price transport in uncertain conditions. That’s a shift the whole industry needs to take seriously.”

Transport and Storage Sector Impacted by Inflation

The cost of running a business has risen significantly in the past decade, reshaping the business landscape across. However, new research suggests that not all industries have been impacted on the same scale, and transport and logistics have been revealed as the second most impacted sector in the UK, with business costs increasing by 53% on average.

To understand which industries have faced the greatest pressure, Dojo have analysed ten core cost categories, including business rates, energy, and industry-relevant supplies, between 2015 and 2025, to create the UK Inflation Index, a sector-by-sector breakdown revealing where operating costs have risen fastest, and how business inflation now compares to consumer inflation.

The analysis shows that on average, UK business costs for SMEs have outpaced consumer price growth by 11.75%, creating an ‘inflation gap’, making profitability harder to maintain in 2026. Analysis from Dojo has discovered that the transport and storage sector is the second most impacted UK sector by inflation over the last decade, with business costs increasing by an average of 53%.

Technology and software costs have increased

This sharp rise in costs is largely driven by the sector’s heavy reliance on technology and software, which have increased by an average of 103% over the past decade. This has been compounded by rising fuel costs, up 90%, and training costs, which have climbed by 92%, further intensifying overall cost pressures.

Dojo’s findings also revealed that transport and vehicle costs have increased by an average of 52% across all industries analysed, highlighting that these cost pressures extend beyond a single sector. What can business owners do to combat inflation?

Charlie Ashworth, Head of Research & Insights at Dojo, says:

“While operating costs have risen significantly over the past decade, with the right insight into their cost structure, businesses can be better equipped to respond to these pressures. For business owners, the opportunity lies in control and efficiency. With labour, energy, insurance and technology costs all contributing to long-term structural change, understanding where your exposure sits is now a strategic advantage. Reviewing supplier contracts, improving operational efficiency, reducing unnecessary overheads, and optimising payment systems can all help protect margins in a higher-cost environment.”

“With increases of this scale, businesses must take a more strategic approach to operations and managing their supplies. Understanding the supply chain is critical, and business owners should really look into how much they pay per item and whether there are more competitive suppliers available without compromising quality. Another option is to investigate how usage can be reduced, or processes improved to minimise waste. In times of sustained inflation, careful supply management can make a meaningful difference to overall profitability.”

“Businesses that regularly assess their operating model, adapt pricing strategies where possible, and invest in tools that streamline transactions and reduce friction are often better positioned to absorb cost pressures without compromising service or growth. The past decade shows that the cost of running a business has evolved. The next decade will reward those who evolve with it.”

Beyond Clearance

Customs is shifting from back-office function to commercial weapon for freight forwarders across Europe. Logistics Business spoke to one expert, about what’s driving the change.

The customs conversation among European freight forwarders and logistics service providers has changed. Björn Höglund, Sales Director at Gaston Schul, sees it across the company’s European footprint every week.

“The forwarders I speak with are split into two groups,” he tells me. “One group is focused on managing customs better – consolidating brokers, improving consistency, reducing errors. The other group is asking a different question altogether: what can customs actually deliver for our business?”

Customs Is No Longer Just Declarations

For Höglund (pictured, below), the answer is straightforward. Duty and VAT savings, trade insights, compliance advisory – these are services a forwarder can monetise. Not as a side project, but as a structured part of their commercial offering.

“The forwarders we work with who are doing this well aren’t just winning on service,” he says. “They’re building new income from capabilities they didn’t previously offer. They walk into tenders with a clear compliance picture for the customer’s specific trade lanes, flag regulatory gaps their customers didn’t know existed, and show data insights their customers can report internally. It sets them apart from the competition – and makes them far harder to replace at renewal.”

For the forwarders ready to go further, Höglund points to performance-based arrangements. “Outcomes tied to agreed targets – measurable savings, measurable results. Not just activity. That changes the conversation from ‘what do you charge for customs?’ to ‘what value does your customs arrangement deliver?'”

Who You Partner With Changes Everything

The question that follows is how forwarders access that capability. Building in-house has appeal, but Höglund is candid: customs expertise across multiple European jurisdictions takes years to develop and cannot be hired quickly or trained from a manual.

He draws a sharp line between a supplier and a partner. “A supplier processes your declarations. A partner sits alongside your business, shares your targets, and invests in understanding your customers as well as you do. A sustainable model that evolves with you – not one that resets with every contract renewal.”

But who that partner is matters as much as what they do. The customs brokerage market has consolidated significantly. Brokers are being absorbed into logistics groups. Operations are being centralised offshore.

“We’re going the other direction,” Höglund says. “Privately owned. Not positioning for a sale. Not optimising for a private equity exit. Every investment we make goes into local expertise and enhanced technologies to remain the leading-edge partner in customs and trade. When something doesn’t go as planned at the border, you’re speaking to someone in-country who knows the local authority and can act. That’s a very different model from a shared service centre.”

For Höglund, choosing the right partner is the decision that determines whether any of the value he describes is actually achievable. “Can you trust your broker with your reputation? What can they actually deliver? Can their performance be measured? Can you show your customers identified savings they can report upwards? If not, that’s the gap. And that level of trust and partnership is exactly what we’ve built within Gaston Schul to deliver.”

How the Value Is Actually Delivered

When asked how the savings and insights described are delivered, Höglund points to a combination that he sees too many forwarders underestimating.

“Standardised customs processes create clean, consistent and auditable data across Europe,” he explains. “Integrated technology and AI enrich that data – spotting errors, identifying duty and VAT savings, flagging FTA opportunities, helping optimise spend and reduce risk. But it still takes genuine customs expertise to interpret it and turn it into something a forwarder can take to their customer.”

At Gaston Schul, this thinking is formalised into what the company calls its lean customs principles – standardise processes, digitalise workflows, create visibility, generate intelligence. Höglund sees the elements as inseparable.

“Standardisation without technology is slow. Technology without clean data is unreliable. Both, without expertise is just noise. The forwarders connecting all three are the ones delivering savings, compliance insight and trade intelligence that their customers can actually see and measure.”

Where This Is Heading

The forwarders choosing Gaston Schul today are not simply buying customs services. They are building partnerships that create measurable value, strengthen their position in tenders, and deliver a level of commercial advantage that is increasingly difficult to replicate.

As Höglund puts it: “The forwarders who still see customs as a back-office cost are exposing themselves to growing risk. They are making it easier for competitors to move ahead. This market is evolving, and expectations are changing. Customers want more than declarations. The forwarders who recognise that shift are already having stronger, more strategic conversations with their customers and with us. Those who do not will see the gap widen, quarter after quarter.”

In a market defined by complexity, regulation, and constant change, standing still is not a neutral position. It is a decision to fall behind. The opportunity now is to rethink customs not as a cost to manage, but as a lever for growth, control, and long-term partnership.

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