21 August, 2026

What happens to a logistics operation when a crisis or disruption hits? One day everything could be running smoothly: routes are getting completed, goods are getting delivered and service levels are on track.

But what happens when something goes wrong? What happens when fuel prices increase? Suppose a vehicle breaks down, a driver leaves unexpectedly, or a large delivery is stopped by a bridge closure. Can the business survive these kinds of setbacks?

Many businesses would love to say ‘Yes’ to this question. But the reality is, many businesses can’t right now. With the current geopolitical landscape remaining uncertain, fuel costs fluctuating, basic road infrastructure declining at an unprecedented rate and the constant threat of driver shortages, there are a number of unexpected issues that could compromise a logistics business’s bottom line at the drop of a hat in 2026.

Andrew Tavener (pictured, below), Head of Marketing at Descartes, believes that ‘OK’ delivery performance is no longer good enough in 2026 and advises how businesses can future proof their organizations moving forward.

Tight Margins Leave Little Room for Hidden Inefficiency

With fleets operating on tighter margins, typically around 2–3%, according to industry data from the Road Haulage Association, there’s little room for error for logistics operations in the current climate. While a one-off disruption to a business’s last-mile delivery probably won’t cause immediate failure, it may gradually erode profitability. So, operators need to ensure they are staying ahead of the curve and ensuring their hidden inefficiencies don’t compound quickly, impacting both profitability and service.

Service Failures Put Customer Loyalty at Risk

Customers won’t tolerate a drop off in service when a business is disrupted by a vehicle breakdown or shortage of drivers. In fact, Descartes’ Ecommerce and Home Delivery Consumer Sentiment Study found that 66% of consumers experienced delivery issues, rising to 79% among under-35s, highlighting a clear gap between what businesses deliver and what customers expect.

At the same time, satisfaction remains low, with only 11% of under-35s saying they are consistently satisfied with delivery experiences. With these challenges, even the smallest issue in the logistics pipeline may lead to a negative customer review and ruin any long-term loyalty.

From Reactive Planning to Resilient Fleet Operations

The operators leading the way have already taken a new approach to planning. These businesses are looking beyond their current fleet performance and are stress testing their businesses consistently. This type of scenario-based planning exposes weaknesses early, which allows them to act before issues begin to impact cost or service performance.

One of the best ways to move towards scenario-based planning is to enlist a system that allows access to real operational data. Organisations can test network configurations, refine routes based on actual constraints, and balance cost, capacity and service more effectively.

With this kind of technology usage, previous time-consuming decisions can be made far more efficiently. When visibility or data is limited, routes aren’t as effective, and ETAs become unreliable. Therefore, operational inefficiencies increase, driving up costs and reducing service consistency. However, with real-time execution data, businesses can continuously refine routes, respond to issues as they arise and build operations that reflect how deliveries actually perform on the road, helping to create more cost-effective and resilient operations.

Logistics operations rarely operate in predictable conditions for long. As cost pressures increase, networks become more complex and customer expectations continue to rise, the margin for error continues to shrink. In this environment, performance that is simply “OK” won’t remain viable.

With the geopolitical climate affecting almost all aspects of logistics operations, businesses must strengthen how their operations perform under pressure. That means improving planning accuracy, increasing visibility across execution and using data to make more informed decisions at both a strategic and operational level. Those that take steps to address these areas will be better positioned to control costs, maintain service levels and adapt as conditions change. Those who don’t risk being exposed when disruption inevitably occurs.

I feel somewhat uncomfortable when highlighting a potential supply chain benefit that has come about as a result of climate change.

While Europe’s been battling wildfires, drought, and dangerously low water levels on major rivers, the simultaneous melting of Arctic sea ice is opening up a new maritime corridor between Asia and Europe. Chinese shipping company Sea Legend has just begun what is being described as the first regular container service through Russia’s Northern Sea Route, sailing from Ningbo in China to Felixstowe in the UK in around 18 days. That cuts the traditional Suez Canal transit time by more than half.

It is a remarkable illustration of how climate change is reshaping logistics in unexpected ways.

The Northern Sea Route runs for roughly 5,500km along Russia’s Arctic coastline. Retreating sea ice is making it increasingly accessible, although it remains a seasonal and technically demanding route. For shippers, the attraction is obvious: fewer nautical miles mean potentially lower fuel consumption, faster transit times, and an alternative to increasingly vulnerable chokepoints such as Suez, the Red Sea and now the Strait of Hormuz.

China is the obvious beneficiary. The route provides another option for getting goods into European markets while reducing reliance on maritime chokepoints controlled or influenced by other powers. For exporters of relatively time-sensitive products such as electric vehicles and solar equipment, shaving days off the journey could be commercially significant.

Russia wins too. Its geography gives it control over much of the Northern Sea Route, including access, infrastructure and icebreaker services. At a time when Western sanctions have restricted many of its traditional trading relationships, the Arctic offers another way to connect Russian resources with Asian markets. Russian oil shipments through the route have already increased sharply this year.

European consumers could ultimately benefit from shorter transit times and potentially lower transport costs. But I wouldn’t expect cheaper TVs, trainers and washing machines to suddenly appear on the high street. Arctic shipping remains a niche operation, with ice-class vessels, icebreaker support, insurance, infrastructure and unpredictable seasonal conditions all adding cost. The route also depends heavily on cooperation with Russia – hardly an insignificant commercial risk.

Which brings us to the losers. Egypt and the ports and logistics ecosystems built around the Suez route have something to worry about if Arctic shipping eventually becomes a meaningful alternative. More importantly, the Arctic itself could be the biggest loser. Increased shipping brings risks of oil spills, black carbon and disturbance to one of the world’s most fragile environments, potentially accelerating the very warming that made the route possible in the first place.

Then there is geopolitics. The Arctic is rapidly becoming another arena for competition between Russia, China, the US and other Arctic nations. Russia’s control of the Northern Sea Route gives Moscow significant leverage, while China’s growing presence creates an increasingly important Sino-Russian partnership.

The great irony is that climate change may make global supply chains more geographically diverse at precisely the moment it makes them more vulnerable elsewhere. That isn’t a reason to celebrate the melting Arctic, but a reminder that climate change is as much a logistics story as it is an environmental one.

Day: 21 August 2026

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Tight Margins Leave Little Room for Hidden Inefficiency

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