The logistics sector has faced its fair share of scares in 2026, with disruption exposing some businesses’ weaknesses, and undermining their profitability and customer confidence. So, if the past year has taught the industry anything, it’s that operating conditions can change at a moment’s notice, and a business performing ‘OK’ has little room to cope when something does go wrong.
As Halloween approaches, and businesses start to prepare for 2027, Andrew Tavener, Head of Marketing at Descartes, believes it’s a timely opportunity to reflect on some of these operational scares and the practical actions businesses can take to mitigate them moving into the new year.
1: Horrifying fuel prices
Since the start of the US/Iran war, there’s been unpredictability around fuel supply chains. In fact, in March, the RAC said that petrol had increased by 3.7p to 136.53p a litre, as the conflict between Iran, the US and Israel pushed up oil prices. Meanwhile, diesel was up by 6p, hitting a 16-month high of 148.35p. This geopolitical uncertainty kept the fuel market unpredictable for the majority of 2026 with diesel prices hitting an all-time high of 199.33p per litre in September. Businesses should prepare to face more unpredictability and high fuel prices in 2027.
2: Extreme weather conditions
Dealing with extreme weather is becoming part of the norm for logistics operators across the globe. From record-breaking levels of rainfall closing roads in parts of the UK, to red-heat health alerts being issued in the summer months and affecting drivers, climate change is certainly starting to have a knock-on effect on how businesses operate, meaning there’s a real risk they could fall behind on their delivery schedules. For example, this summer’s heatwave led to the RAC reporting a 20% surge in breakdowns due to vehicles overheating in June.
3: The pothole pandemic
One of the major knock-on effects of extreme weather is faster deteriorating roads and an increasing number of potholes. This means the UK’s road network is under increasing strain. And the problem won’t be going away anytime soon. There are thought to be more than one million potholes across the country, with these defects being a leading cause of vehicle breakdowns, according to the RAC. The Asphalt Industry Alliance’s latest ALARM Survey estimates the England and Wales’ road maintenance backlog has reached a record £18.62 billion, underlining the growing pressure on both public infrastructure and the fleets that rely on it.
4: Fears of unexpected delays
Roadworks, closures and last-minute restrictions are always going to sneak up on operators. And when they do, they quickly turn a routine delivery schedule into an operational nightmare. This year, the M53’s lengthy repair programme and concerns over the condition of major London bridges have highlighted some of the pressure on routes that logistics operators depend on. For operators already working with tight margins, the impact goes beyond lost time, with longer journeys increasing fuel costs and late deliveries putting customer confidence at risk.
5: Porch piracy on the rise
Porch piracy has been on the rise for a few years now. In 2024, Descartes research showed that 67% of consumers experienced a problem with home deliveries and the total value of parcels stolen across the UK at the end of 2024 had risen to £376m, up from £204m in 2023. This number has likely risen again over the past three years, with thefts set to escalate around Christmas. The danger of this for logistics operators is that stolen parcels damage customer trust and can lead to negative reviews for retailers. Replacements, refunds and repeat deliveries also eat into profit margins, putting particular pressure on smaller businesses with less room to absorb the costs.
6: Driver shortages
As always, driver shortages have been worrying enough for many operators to lose sleep over this year. However, this dread was emphasised this month in Logistics UK‘s Compliance Report 2026, saying the driver workforce has shrunk by 30,000, with only 4% of drivers under 25. And with the loss of driver training funding, the problem will only get worse. The urgent need for logistics operators to use technology to reduce pressure on existing drivers and maximise fleet efficiency has never been more important.
7: The rise of AI
Finally, AI has certainly been the buzzword of the past year. However, there’s a danger that logistics businesses can get caught up in the unhelpful hype about AI without knowing all the facts. The truth is, how operators use AI will very much define the outcomes they get. Additionally, AI is only as good as the data it’s working with. If operators feed it bad data, they will get bad results, which could put operations at risk of disappointing customers and damaging their bottom line.
Keeping logistics nightmares at bay in 2027
Moving forward into 2027, it’s no longer okay for logistics operators to be doing just “okay”. This creates a false sense of security and companies must start stress-testing their operations now so that fuel prices, unexpected delays, and other disruptions don’t get in the way of business. This can be done by using real operational data to test how their plans hold up under pressure. Logistics teams can also lean on scenario-based planning too to reveal how disruption affects delivery capacity and costs, helping operators identify where customer commitments or profitability are at risk. This gives them time to adjust routes and allocate resources before those weaknesses become costly problems.
Route planning must also reflect the constraints drivers face on the road. By reviewing actual journey times, delivery performance and available capacity, operators can build more realistic schedules and reduce unnecessary mileage. Greater visibility during delivery execution then helps teams respond as problems develop, adjust plans and keep customers informed when arrival times change. This should be a continuous process. Feeding delivery data back into planning allows businesses to understand where schedules fall short and refine future routes. It also helps them make better use of existing vehicles and drivers without relying on increasingly stretched teams to absorb every disruption.
When it comes to porch piracy, this requires better communication with customers. Having technology in place to enable clear delivery windows and timely notifications helps customers to be available to receive parcels, while agreed secure locations or collection points offer alternatives when they’re out. Drivers should have clear instructions for unattended deliveries, supported by proof of delivery that records where parcels were left.
Finally, before introducing AI, operators should check that the data informing their decisions is accurate, current and consistent across systems. That means correcting incomplete delivery records, updating journey times and bringing information held in separate spreadsheets into a shared operational view. Starting with a defined task, such as identifying unrealistic schedules, allows teams to check AI recommendations against actual delivery outcomes before extending its use.
Conclusion
The nightmares of 2026 are a reminder that hidden inefficiencies become costly under pressure. Operators cannot control every disruption, but they can strengthen their ability to respond. Addressing those weaknesses now with the help of new technologies such as AI (when used effectively) will help businesses remain efficient. By considering some of these measures, businesses will be able to put in place strategic and practical actions that can help them protect profitability and customer confidence before these familiar problems return to haunt them in 2027.
